New UK Government Futures Framework

CEP is a supplier on the new UK Government Futures Framework

CEP, in partnership with Cranfield University, have been appointed as a supplier to the new ‘Futures Framework’ which is supporting departments and agencies across UK Government in undertaking futures work and developing foresight capabilities.

The framework launched in February 2020 and will last for four years.  Through the framework UK Government departments and agencies can access support in relation to:

• Understanding emerging trends and developments that could impact policy;

• Understanding systemic consequences of policy or strategy;

• Exploring underlying drivers and issues in scoping policy or strategy;

• Identifying trade-offs and synergies in policy or strategy design;

• Determining visions of the future for new areas of policy or strategy;

• Use scenarios to test the future resilience of decisions;

• Literature and evidence reviews; and,

• Designing participatory processes including workshops.

Our partnership with Cranfield University builds on the ongoing successful collaboration to support the European Commission in implementing the European Foresight System for Emerging Environmental Issues (FORENV). 

CEP and Cranfield’s collective futures expertise includes:

• Conducting foresight and policy research, and developing forward-looking processes (e.g. emerging risk identification, horizon scanning, scenario building);

• Designing strategic foresight processes (e.g. scenario building and horizon scanning processes) and toolkits;

• Conducting foresight research to support the long-term vision, and strategic orientation of organisations and their policies;

• Providing expert assessment of emerging issues and their consequences;

• Conducting UK and EU-wide policy/programme evaluations across all stages of the policy cycle; and,

• Designing and delivering training and capacity building to public and private sector organisations in the use of strategic foresight processes.

More details of our partnership and a prospectus which sets out the collective expertise CEP and Cranfield are able to offer is available through the Cranfield University website.

Please contact Owen White (Technical Director) for any further information.

Evaluating policy interventions: What role for Theory of Change?

Evaluating policy interventions: What role for Theory of Change?

Blog post by Sian Morse-Jones

What is a Theory of Change (ToC)?  Different terminologies/approaches exist. From an evaluation perspective a ToC commonly articulates how an intervention (e.g. policy, programme, project) is expected to lead to an ultimate goal(s) by showing what needs to happen, in what order and in what way. It establishes the ‘how’ and ‘why’ activities lead to outputs, outcomes and ultimately goals/impacts, explaining the assumptions underpinning this. Usually presented in a diagram or map, a ToC allows big picture thinking, and can help to contextualise where an intervention sits alongside other influences, depicting how external factors may also influence the goal. 

Example Theory of Change diagram for Countryside Stewardship Facilitation Fund (CEP, 2015, Report to Defra)

In evaluation, having a clear understanding of an intervention’s ToC is incredibly useful for a variety of reasons. It can clarify the causal relationships between different activities, outputs, outcomes and goals and highlight the chief assumptions which underpin why these contribute to specific goals. This can provide pertinent information to inform the evaluation framework, questions, criteria, evidence and needs.

A frequent challenge in the evaluation of policy interventions is that impacts/goals are often long term, for example, the biodiversity benefits from habitat improvement or creation may take years to materialise, or as in the case of emergencies such as flooding, may not manifest within the timeframe of the evaluation. The ToC is a powerful tool in such contexts because it provides a theoretical basis for evaluating these in terms of activities, outputs or outcomes which are measurable.

Evaluation of an intervention also provides the opportunity to further test and explore the validity of the ToC, enabling further refinements. Because the ToC tells us that achieving goals rely on specific assumptions, it can be very helpful to explore and consider whether assumptions are correct, why, and in what circumstances? Similarly, if assumptions are not correct, why are they not? What’s not working? In this way, a ToC-based evaluation can help to surface valuable lessons to benefit the design of an intervention, as well as informing policy and practice.

CEP has  much experience in using ToC to evaluate policy interventions – applications include:

• Our work on Our Bright Futures  to evaluate how, and to what extent, a programme and portfolio of projects aimed at young people, has led to progressive change in outcomes for the young people, the environment, their communities and the economy, as well as the long-term influence and legacy.

• In the monitoring and evaluation of Nature Improvement Areas for Defra, and

• In evaluating a project on community engagement on flood risks for Natural Resources Wales.

In CEP’s experience, understanding the theory behind ‘how’ and ‘why’ an intervention will have an impact in the real world is a vital part not just of designing effective interventions, but also in evaluation. Yet it is surprisingly rare for policy interventions to be well articulated in a ToC, often because an explicit policy cycle / clear role for how evaluation can be used in future policy is lacking[1].  Getting the ToC right at the outset may not only result in a stronger intervention, but also a more robust and efficient evaluation process, drawing out key lessons for the future direction of policy and implementation.

Dr Sian Morse-Jones, Senior Consultant, CEP, 22 October 2018

[1] For more details see CEP’s meta-evaluation of 10 years’ of our projects: Learning the Lessons for Evaluating Complexity across the Nexus.

CEP attending CECAN annual conference

CEP attending CECAN's annual conference on policy evaluation in London on July 11th

Dr Bill Sheate will be attending CECAN's annual conference in London on July 11th. The theme of the conference this year is Policy Evaluation for a Complex World - The Challenges that Complexity Poses for Policy - Solutions and Benefits. 

Bill led a meta-evaluation study for CEP - Learning lessons for evaluating complexity across the nexus: a meta-evaluation of CEP projects - published in 2017 as part of our involvement as partners in CECAN.